ThrillerWest End
01 · Plan
Box office forecast & investor model
Week-by-week projections, break-even cases and a one-page investor summary.
Producers raising money for a new production, transfer or tour, who need box office numbers that investors and venues will trust.
It also suits producers checking whether a show can work in a particular venue before they commit.
How it works
From first conversation to finished model
- 1
First conversation
We talk through the show, the venue or venues, the run length, the cast and the target audience, plus any deal terms already on the table.
- 2
Gathering the inputs
Capacity and seating plan, performance schedule, proposed prices, venue deal, agent commissions and any comparable shows we can benchmark against.
- 3
Building the model
Gross potential by performance, realistic capacity and average ticket price assumptions week by week, and the weekly box office net of VAT, commissions and venue charges.
- 4
Scenarios
Low, central and high cases, so everyone can see the range and where the show breaks even.
- 5
Review and handover
We walk you through the model, adjust the assumptions together, and hand over a version ready for your investor pack.
What you get
What you end up with
A clear spreadsheet model with every assumption written down, a summary of weekly and total box office under each scenario, the recoupment point, and a short written note you can share with investors.
The model usually takes around two weeks to deliver, and we update it once tickets go on sale.
01 · Plan
What's included
- Week-by-week box office projections
- Low, mid and high break-even cases
- Pricing benchmarked to similar shows
- One-page investor summary
Tours and extra scenarios scoped separately.
FAQs
Common questions
When should I commission a forecast?
As early as you can, ideally before you agree the venue deal and before you approach investors. The model is most useful when it can still change a decision.
What do you need from me to start?
The venue, run dates, performance schedule and any proposed pricing. If you don't have pricing yet, we'll propose it as part of the work.
How do you decide what capacity and ticket price to assume?
From comparable productions, the venue's own history, the size of the potential audience and the pricing strategy. Every assumption is written down so investors can see the reasoning.
Can the model be updated once tickets go on sale?
Yes. Once real sales come in, we can measure them against the forecast and refresh the projections. Whether this is included depends on what we agree at the start.
Will investors understand it?
That's the point. The summary is written for non-specialists, and the detail is there for anyone who wants to test it.
The proof
Shows we have worked on
Kind words
What producers and partners say
I enjoyed working with Tommy. He was proactive and effective to deal with agents in driving sales on my show.
Tommy's insight and hard work on The Choir of Man has been a key part of the success of the show in London's West End. A brilliant team player.
Tommy has a remarkable understanding of the theatre business, particularly ticketing and audience development. He has a real instinct for what works in the London market. He's exactly the kind of professional I want beside me when we are trying to fill a house, and someone people genuinely enjoy working with. I recommend him without hesitation.
What comes next
Related services
Let's talk about your show
Empty seats are not an option
Your first get-to-know-you meeting is free.